How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Beijing Guoan, at 65.7%. The other outcomes represent 34.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 16.6% · Draw: 17.7% · Away win: 65.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Qingdao Jonoon 1574; Beijing Guoan 1899. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Super League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 11:35
Qingdao Jonoon
Elo 1574
0
-
3
Beijing Guoan
Elo 1899
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-325
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Qingdao Jonoon1574
Beijing Guoan1899
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Qingdao Jonoon
0Draws
2Beijing Guoan
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
66% conf.
CORRECT
Home
17%
Draw
18%
Away
66%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Home Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Double Chance 1X
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance X2
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
23%
Draw
42%
Away
35%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.