How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Avellino, at 53.2%. The other outcomes represent 46.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 53.2% · Draw: 25.1% · Away win: 21.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Avellino 1740; Sampdoria 1665. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie B · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:30
Avellino
Elo 1740
4
-
1
Sampdoria
Elo 1665
FT
HT 4-1
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+76
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Avellino1740
Sampdoria1665
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Avellino
0Draws
2Sampdoria
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
53% conf.
CORRECT
Home
53%
Draw
25%
Away
22%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
37% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
Draw
37%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.