How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Nasaf, at 60.5%. The other outcomes represent 39.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 60.5% · Draw: 20.7% · Away win: 18.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Nasaf 1750; Dinamo Samarqand 1679. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Super League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 14:30
Nasaf
Elo 1750
2
-
1
Dinamo Samarqand
Elo 1679
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+71
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Nasaf1750
Dinamo Samarqand1679
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Nasaf
2Draws
0Dinamo Samarqand
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
60% conf.
CORRECT
Home
60%
Draw
21%
Away
19%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
40%
Draw
42%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.