How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Mornar, at 72.1%. The other outcomes represent 27.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 72.1% · Draw: 17% · Away win: 10.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Mornar 1774; Jezero 1592. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–3. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
First League · Thursday, Oct 8 2026
· 16:00
Mornar
Elo 1774
3
-
3
Jezero
Elo 1592
FT
HT 2-2
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+182
H2H (13)
8H
4D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Mornar1774
Jezero1592
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
8Mornar
4Draws
1Jezero
13 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
72% conf.
WRONG
Home
72%
Draw
17%
Away
11%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
Draw
38%
Away
12%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.