How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Arsenal Tula, at 37.7%. The other outcomes represent 62.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37.7% · Draw: 26.6% · Away win: 35.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Arsenal Tula 1637; Spartak Kostroma 1759. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
First League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 16:30
Arsenal Tula
Elo 1637
3
-
2
Spartak Kostroma
Elo 1759
FT
HT 2-2
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-122
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Arsenal Tula1637
Spartak Kostroma1759
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Arsenal Tula
4Draws
0Spartak Kostroma
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
38%
Draw
27%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
22%
Draw
45%
Away
33%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.