How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Xelajú, at 43.1%. The other outcomes represent 56.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.8% · Draw: 25.1% · Away win: 43.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Aurora 1583; Xelajú 1756. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga Nacional · Saturday, Oct 10 2026
· 21:00
Aurora
Elo 1583
vs
Xelajú
Elo 1756
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-173
H2H (3)
0H
1D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Aurora1583
Xelajú1756
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Aurora
1Draws
2Xelajú
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
Home
32%
Draw
25%
Away
43%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
71% conf.
Yes
71%
No
29%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
Home
27%
Draw
42%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.