How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Venados FC, at 47.8%. The other outcomes represent 52.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.8% · Draw: 23.8% · Away win: 28.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Venados FC 1555; Leones Negros UDG 1570. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga de Expansión MX · Saturday, Oct 10 2026
· 23:00
Venados FC
Elo 1555
vs
Leones Negros UDG
Elo 1570
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-15
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Venados FC1555
Leones Negros UDG1570
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Venados FC
0Draws
0Leones Negros UDG
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
Home
48%
Draw
24%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
Yes
51%
No
49%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
Home
41%
Draw
36%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
51% conf.
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.