How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Diriangén, at 76.8%. The other outcomes represent 23.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 76.8% · Draw: 13.4% · Away win: 9.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Diriangén 1797; Walter Ferretti 1524. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Division · Sunday, Oct 11 2026
· 00:00
Diriangén
Elo 1797
vs
Walter Ferretti
Elo 1524
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+273
H2H (5)
5H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Diriangén1797
Walter Ferretti1524
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
5Diriangén
0Draws
0Walter Ferretti
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
77% conf.
Home
77%
Draw
13%
Away
10%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
90% conf.
Yes
10%
No
90%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Half-Time Result
54% conf.
Home
54%
Draw
35%
Away
11%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.