How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Marcílio Dias, at 60.5%. The other outcomes represent 39.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 24.6% · Draw: 14.9% · Away win: 60.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Nação 1398; Marcílio Dias 1714. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Copa Santa Catarina · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:00
Nação
Elo 1398
0
-
0
Marcílio Dias
Elo 1714
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-316
Elo rating comparison
Nação1398
Marcílio Dias1714
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Nação
—Draws
—Marcílio Dias
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
Draw
15%
Away
61%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Clean Sheet
92% conf.
WRONG
Yes
8%
No
92%
Double Chance 1X
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance X2
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Half-Time Result
57% conf.
WRONG
Home
18%
Draw
25%
Away
57%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
80%
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
WRONG
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Home Win to Nil
100% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
0%
No
100%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.