How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Brackley Town, at 39.3%. The other outcomes represent 60.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39.3% · Draw: 25% · Away win: 35.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Brackley Town 1560; Chelmsford City 1710. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FA Cup · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Brackley Town
Elo 1560
0
-
2
Chelmsford City
Elo 1710
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Elo Advantage
-150
Elo rating comparison
Brackley Town1560
Chelmsford City1710
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Brackley Town
—Draws
—Chelmsford City
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
Draw
25%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
31%
Draw
45%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.