How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bury, at 66.1%. The other outcomes represent 33.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 66.1% · Draw: 20.6% · Away win: 13.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bury 1729; Bromsgrove Sporting 1619. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FA Cup · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Bury
Elo 1729
2
-
1
Bromsgrove Sporting
Elo 1619
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
+110
Elo rating comparison
Bury1729
Bromsgrove Sporting1619
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Bury
—Draws
—Bromsgrove Sporting
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
66% conf.
CORRECT
Home
66%
Draw
21%
Away
13%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
47%
Draw
39%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.