How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is South Shields, at 54.2%. The other outcomes represent 45.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 26.6% · Draw: 19.1% · Away win: 54.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Buxton 1738; South Shields 1776. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FA Cup · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Buxton
Elo 1738
0
-
2
South Shields
Elo 1776
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-38
H2H (6)
0H
0D
6A
Elo rating comparison
Buxton1738
South Shields1776
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Buxton
0Draws
6South Shields
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
27%
Draw
19%
Away
54%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Double Chance X2
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
Draw
39%
Away
36%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.