How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Chesham United, at 40.3%. The other outcomes represent 59.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40.3% · Draw: 20.9% · Away win: 38.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Chesham United 1638; Real Bedford 1792. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FA Cup · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Chesham United
Elo 1638
4
-
3
Real Bedford
Elo 1792
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-154
Elo rating comparison
Chesham United1638
Real Bedford1792
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Chesham United
—Draws
—Real Bedford
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
40%
Draw
21%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
43%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Over 3.5 Goals
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.