How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Leiston, at 42.6%. The other outcomes represent 57.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.6% · Draw: 21.8% · Away win: 35.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Leiston 1616; Coventry United 1478. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FA Cup · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Leiston
Elo 1616
3
-
1
Coventry United
Elo 1478
FT
HT 3-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+138
Elo rating comparison
Leiston1616
Coventry United1478
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Leiston
—Draws
—Coventry United
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
Draw
22%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
No
39%
Half-Time Result
35% conf.
CORRECT
Home
35%
Draw
31%
Away
33%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Home Win to Nil
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.