How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Macclesfield, at 53.4%. The other outcomes represent 46.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 53.4% · Draw: 21.5% · Away win: 25.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Macclesfield 1820; Scarborough Athletic 1678. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FA Cup · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Macclesfield
Elo 1820
2
-
2
Scarborough Athletic
Elo 1678
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+142
H2H (5)
0H
5D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Macclesfield1820
Scarborough Athletic1678
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Macclesfield
5Draws
0Scarborough Athletic
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
53% conf.
WRONG
Home
53%
Draw
21%
Away
25%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
39%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.