How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Marine, at 59.8%. The other outcomes represent 40.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 59.8% · Draw: 19.9% · Away win: 20.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Marine 1671; Warrington Town 1519. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FA Cup · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Marine
Elo 1671
2
-
0
Warrington Town
Elo 1519
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+151
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Marine1671
Warrington Town1519
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Marine
0Draws
0Warrington Town
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
60% conf.
CORRECT
Home
60%
Draw
20%
Away
20%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
46%
Draw
39%
Away
15%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.