How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is União São João, at 42.1%. The other outcomes represent 57.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.1% · Draw: 31.3% · Away win: 26.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: União São João 1562; Grêmio Prudente 1577. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Copa Paulista · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:00
União São João
Elo 1562
2
-
1
Grêmio Prudente
Elo 1577
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
0W
5D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-15
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
União São João1562
Grêmio Prudente1577
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0União São João
4Draws
0Grêmio Prudente
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
42%
Draw
31%
Away
27%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
Draw
47%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
HT Over 1.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Over 1.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 3.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.