How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is USM Oujda, at 40.5%. The other outcomes represent 59.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.7% · Draw: 25.8% · Away win: 40.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Chabab Mohammédia 1324; USM Oujda 1468. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Botola 2 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 16:00
Chabab Mohammédia
Elo 1324
0
-
1
USM Oujda
Elo 1468
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-144
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Chabab Mohammédia1324
USM Oujda1468
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Chabab Mohammédia
0Draws
0USM Oujda
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
34%
Draw
26%
Away
40%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
26%
Draw
43%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.