How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Liverpool Montevideo, at 59.3%. The other outcomes represent 40.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 59.3% · Draw: 20.8% · Away win: 20%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Liverpool Montevideo 1706; Progreso 1483. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Liverpool Montevideo
Elo 1706
3
-
2
Progreso
Elo 1483
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+223
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Liverpool Montevideo1706
Progreso1483
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Liverpool Montevideo
2Draws
0Progreso
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
CORRECT
Home
59%
@ 1.67
Draw
21%
@ 3.65
Away
20%
@ 4.63
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.15
No
16%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
@ 2.26
Draw
40%
@ 2.21
Away
13%
@ 5.09
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
@ 1.39
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Over 1.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.29
No
33%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.