How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Chatham Town, at 44.1%. The other outcomes represent 55.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.7% · Draw: 20.2% · Away win: 44.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Dorking Wanderers 1720; Chatham Town 1719. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FA Cup · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Dorking Wanderers
Elo 1720
1
-
0
Chatham Town
Elo 1719
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+1
Elo rating comparison
Dorking Wanderers1720
Chatham Town1719
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Dorking Wanderers
—Draws
—Chatham Town
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
Draw
20%
Away
44%
Both Teams to Score
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
Draw
35%
Away
36%
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
80%
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
90% conf.
WRONG
Yes
90%
No
10%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
WRONG
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.