How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Deportivo Maldonado, at 63.5%. The other outcomes represent 36.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 63.5% · Draw: 20.1% · Away win: 16.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Deportivo Maldonado 1732; Central Espanol 1588. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 21:00
Deportivo Maldonado
Elo 1732
3
-
0
Central Espanol
Elo 1588
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+144
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Deportivo Maldonado1732
Central Espanol1588
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Deportivo Maldonado
0Draws
2Central Espanol
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
64% conf.
CORRECT
Home
64%
@ 1.63
Draw
20%
@ 3.62
Away
16%
@ 4.96
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
@ 1.14
No
15%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
44%
@ 2.24
Draw
40%
@ 2.13
Away
16%
@ 5.57
HT Both Teams Score
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.43
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.37
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.