How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Wanderers, at 41.4%. The other outcomes represent 58.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 32.4% · Draw: 26.2% · Away win: 41.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cerro 1548; Wanderers 1562. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 19:00
Cerro
Elo 1548
0
-
2
Wanderers
Elo 1562
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-14
H2H (6)
0H
4D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Cerro1548
Wanderers1562
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Cerro
4Draws
2Wanderers
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
32%
@ 2.82
Draw
26%
@ 3.14
Away
41%
@ 2.39
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.51
No
47%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
@ 1.36
No
27%
Half-Time Result
53% conf.
WRONG
Home
21%
@ 3.62
Draw
53%
@ 2.00
Away
27%
@ 3.16
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.48
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.43
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.