How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Penarol, at 44.3%. The other outcomes represent 55.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 22.9% · Draw: 32.8% · Away win: 44.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Racing Montevideo 1646; Penarol 1817. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 22:30
Racing Montevideo
Elo 1646
0
-
1
Penarol
Elo 1817
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-171
H2H (4)
2H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Racing Montevideo1646
Penarol1817
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Racing Montevideo
2Draws
0Penarol
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
23%
@ 3.26
Draw
33%
@ 3.11
Away
44%
@ 2.12
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.28
No
19%
Half-Time Result
57% conf.
CORRECT
Home
14%
@ 4.06
Draw
57%
@ 1.99
Away
29%
@ 2.93
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
@ 1.49
No
41%
HT Over 1.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Over 1.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
@ 1.42
No
33%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
96% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
4%
No
96%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.