How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Club Nacional, at 44.4%. The other outcomes represent 55.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.4% · Draw: 24% · Away win: 31.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Club Nacional 1743; Atletico Torque 1754. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 23:00
Club Nacional
Elo 1743
vs
Atletico Torque
Elo 1754
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-11
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Club Nacional1743
Atletico Torque1754
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Club Nacional
0Draws
0Atletico Torque
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
Home
44%
Draw
24%
Away
32%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
Home
34%
Draw
45%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.