How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Atenas, at 41.1%. The other outcomes represent 58.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 34.6% · Draw: 24.2% · Away win: 41.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Tacuarembo 1403; Atenas 1518. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 22:00
Tacuarembo
Elo 1403
0
-
1
Atenas
Elo 1518
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-114
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Tacuarembo1403
Atenas1518
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Tacuarembo
0Draws
4Atenas
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
35%
@ 3.38
Draw
24%
@ 3.08
Away
41%
@ 2.07
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.94
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.64
No
47%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.26
No
31%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
23%
@ 4.16
Draw
45%
@ 1.99
Away
32%
@ 2.78
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
@ 1.48
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
@ 1.41
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
@ 2.27
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.