How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Colón, at 38.3%. The other outcomes represent 61.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38.3% · Draw: 25.7% · Away win: 35.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Colón 1504; Oriental 1532. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Colón
Elo 1504
0
-
0
Oriental
Elo 1532
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-28
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Colón1504
Oriental1532
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Colón
4Draws
0Oriental
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
@ 2.75
Draw
26%
@ 2.88
Away
36%
@ 2.60
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.44
No
40%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
@ 1.38
No
34%
Half-Time Result
55% conf.
CORRECT
Home
22%
@ 3.46
Draw
55%
@ 1.95
Away
23%
@ 3.30
HT Both Teams Score
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
HT Over 0.5
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
@ 1.48
No
42%
HT Over 1.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Over 1.5 Goals
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
@ 1.41
No
39%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 3.5 Goals
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
7%
No
93%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.