How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Plaza Colonia, at 48.0%. The other outcomes represent 52.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 48% · Draw: 30.1% · Away win: 21.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Plaza Colonia 1585; Cerrito 1457. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 19:00
Plaza Colonia
Elo 1585
1
-
3
Cerrito
Elo 1457
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
5D
0L
Elo Advantage
+128
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Plaza Colonia1585
Cerrito1457
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Plaza Colonia
0Draws
2Cerrito
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
48%
@ 2.07
Draw
30%
@ 3.20
Away
22%
@ 3.32
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
@ 1.27
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.65
No
44%
Half-Time Result
56% conf.
WRONG
Home
26%
@ 2.74
Draw
56%
@ 2.02
Away
18%
@ 4.09
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.44
No
39%
HT Over 1.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Over 1.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
@ 1.36
No
38%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.