How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is CA River Plate, at 41.3%. The other outcomes represent 58.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.2% · Draw: 25.6% · Away win: 41.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: La Luz 1404; CA River Plate 1518. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 22:00
La Luz
Elo 1404
3
-
2
CA River Plate
Elo 1518
FT
HT 1-2
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-114
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
La Luz1404
CA River Plate1518
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0La Luz
2Draws
0CA River Plate
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
Draw
26%
Away
41%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
21%
Draw
47%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.