How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Genk, at 50.2%. The other outcomes represent 49.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 50.2% · Draw: 25.3% · Away win: 24.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Genk 1969; Fortuna Sittard 1767. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Clubs · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 11:00
Genk
Elo 1969
1
-
2
Fortuna Sittard
Elo 1767
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
0W
4D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
+203
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Genk1969
Fortuna Sittard1767
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Genk
0Draws
2Fortuna Sittard
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
@ 1.65
Draw
25%
@ 4.09
Away
24%
@ 4.19
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
@ 1.20
No
25%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
37% conf.
CORRECT
Home
37%
@ 2.09
Draw
36%
@ 2.49
Away
27%
@ 4.29
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.20
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.09
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.40
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.