How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Aberdeen, at 44.2%. The other outcomes represent 55.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 34.7% · Draw: 21.1% · Away win: 44.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Dunfermline 1750; Aberdeen 1864. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–4. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Clubs · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Dunfermline
Elo 1750
1
-
4
Aberdeen
Elo 1864
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
-114
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Dunfermline1750
Aberdeen1864
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Dunfermline
0Draws
0Aberdeen
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
35%
Draw
21%
Away
44%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
30%
Draw
38%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.