How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Defensores Glew, at 46.5%. The other outcomes represent 53.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 46.5% · Draw: 25.6% · Away win: 27.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Defensores Glew 1665; Uribelarrea 1569. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Torneo Promocional Amateur · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 18:00
Defensores Glew
Elo 1665
0
-
1
Uribelarrea
Elo 1569
PEN
FT 90' 0-1
HT 0-1
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+96
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Defensores Glew1665
Uribelarrea1569
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Defensores Glew
0Draws
0Uribelarrea
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
47%
Draw
26%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
Draw
43%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.