How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Deportivo Metalurgico, at 42.9%. The other outcomes represent 57.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.9% · Draw: 21.2% · Away win: 42.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: SAT Moreno 1569; Deportivo Metalurgico 1622. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Torneo Promocional Amateur · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 16:00
SAT Moreno
Elo 1569
2
-
2
Deportivo Metalurgico
Elo 1622
PEN
FT 90' 2-2
HT 2-1
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-53
H2H (10)
0H
4D
6A
Elo rating comparison
SAT Moreno1569
Deportivo Metalurgico1622
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0SAT Moreno
4Draws
6Deportivo Metalurgico
10 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
Draw
21%
Away
43%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
Draw
41%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.