How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Ludogorets, at 63.3%. The other outcomes represent 36.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 63.3% · Draw: 20.6% · Away win: 16.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Ludogorets 2035; Cherno More Varna 1809. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 5–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Clubs · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 14:00
Ludogorets
Elo 2035
5
-
0
Cherno More Varna
Elo 1809
FT
HT 4-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+226
H2H (6)
4H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Ludogorets2035
Cherno More Varna1809
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Ludogorets
2Draws
0Cherno More Varna
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
63% conf.
CORRECT
Home
63%
@ 1.46
Draw
21%
@ 4.12
Away
16%
@ 5.37
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
@ 1.12
No
7%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
46%
@ 1.94
Draw
40%
@ 2.41
Away
14%
@ 5.33
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.25
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.59
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.