How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Safa, at 60.4%. The other outcomes represent 39.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 60.4% · Draw: 27.1% · Away win: 12.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Safa 1730; Reyady Abaseya 1506. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Thursday, Oct 8 2026
· 18:45
Safa
Elo 1730
2
-
1
Reyady Abaseya
Elo 1506
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+224
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Safa1730
Reyady Abaseya1506
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Safa
0Draws
0Reyady Abaseya
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
60% conf.
CORRECT
Home
60%
Draw
27%
Away
12%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
Draw
38%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.