How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Papua New Guinea W, at 68.8%. The other outcomes represent 31.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 68.8% · Draw: 19.9% · Away win: 11.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Papua New Guinea W 1626; Vanuatu W 1492. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Women · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 00:00
Papua New Guinea W
Elo 1626
1
-
1
Vanuatu W
Elo 1492
PEN
FT 90' 1-1
HT 1-1
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+133
H2H (8)
8H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Papua New Guinea W1626
Vanuatu W1492
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
8Papua New Guinea W
0Draws
0Vanuatu W
8 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
69% conf.
WRONG
Home
69%
Draw
20%
Away
11%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Half-Time Result
54% conf.
WRONG
Home
54%
Draw
31%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.