How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Botev Vratsa, at 39.7%. The other outcomes represent 60.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.9% · Draw: 26.4% · Away win: 39.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Slavia Sofia 1797; Botev Vratsa 1805. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Clubs · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 08:30
Slavia Sofia
Elo 1797
2
-
1
Botev Vratsa
Elo 1805
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-9
H2H (6)
4H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Slavia Sofia1797
Botev Vratsa1805
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Slavia Sofia
2Draws
0Botev Vratsa
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
@ 2.54
Draw
26%
@ 3.24
Away
40%
@ 2.46
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.66
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
No
34%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
27%
@ 3.11
Draw
41%
@ 2.15
Away
33%
@ 3.05
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.36
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
@ 1.25
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
@ 1.83
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.