How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Chrobry Głogów, at 40.1%. The other outcomes represent 59.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40.1% · Draw: 23.5% · Away win: 36.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Chrobry Głogów 1709; Warta Poznań 1719. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Clubs · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 10:00
Chrobry Głogów
Elo 1709
1
-
3
Warta Poznań
Elo 1719
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
-10
H2H (6)
2H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Chrobry Głogów1709
Warta Poznań1719
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Chrobry Głogów
0Draws
4Warta Poznań
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
40%
@ 2.35
Draw
23%
@ 3.47
Away
36%
@ 2.54
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
@ 1.43
No
36%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
@ 1.50
No
34%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
@ 2.90
Draw
41%
@ 2.30
Away
31%
@ 3.07
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.27
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
@ 1.16
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.60
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.