How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Fakel, at 39.8%. The other outcomes represent 60.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39.8% · Draw: 27.5% · Away win: 32.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Fakel 1751; FC Vitebsk 1868. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Clubs · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 11:30
Fakel
Elo 1751
1
-
0
FC Vitebsk
Elo 1868
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
-117
Elo rating comparison
Fakel1751
FC Vitebsk1868
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Fakel
—Draws
—FC Vitebsk
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
40%
@ 1.73
Draw
27%
@ 3.84
Away
33%
@ 4.71
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
@ 1.19
No
36%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
@ 2.11
No
41%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
@ 2.24
Draw
45%
@ 2.19
Away
25%
@ 4.95
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.33
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
73%
@ 1.20
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
@ 1.81
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.