How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lech Poznan, at 59.5%. The other outcomes represent 40.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 59.5% · Draw: 18.8% · Away win: 21.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lech Poznan 2073; Energie Cottbus 1831. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Clubs · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 11:30
Lech Poznan
Elo 2073
2
-
2
Energie Cottbus
Elo 1831
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
+241
Elo rating comparison
Lech Poznan2073
Energie Cottbus1831
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Lech Poznan
—Draws
—Energie Cottbus
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
60% conf.
WRONG
Home
60%
Draw
19%
Away
22%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
Draw
38%
Away
19%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.