How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lifofane, at 74.4%. The other outcomes represent 25.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 74.4% · Draw: 15.6% · Away win: 10.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lifofane 1647; Machokha 1356. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 13:00
Lifofane
Elo 1647
1
-
2
Machokha
Elo 1356
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+290
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Lifofane1647
Machokha1356
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Lifofane
0Draws
0Machokha
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
74% conf.
WRONG
Home
74%
Draw
16%
Away
10%
Both Teams to Score
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Away Clean Sheet
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
No
39%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
WRONG
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Half-Time Result
59% conf.
WRONG
Home
59%
Draw
30%
Away
11%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Win to Nil
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.