How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Rahimo, at 66.4%. The other outcomes represent 33.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 66.4% · Draw: 23.4% · Away win: 10.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Rahimo 1741; Douanes 1558. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue 1 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 15:30
Rahimo
Elo 1741
1
-
2
Douanes
Elo 1558
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+184
H2H (3)
3H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Rahimo1741
Douanes1558
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
3Rahimo
0Draws
0Douanes
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
66% conf.
WRONG
Home
66%
@ 2.09
Draw
23%
@ 3.17
Away
10%
@ 5.20
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
WRONG
Yes
93%
@ 1.23
No
7%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
@ 2.88
Draw
43%
@ 1.90
Away
13%
@ 6.05
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.58
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.55
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.