How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Waterhouse, at 50.8%. The other outcomes represent 49.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 26.2% · Draw: 23% · Away win: 50.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Chapelton 1501; Waterhouse 1671. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–6. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 22:05
Chapelton
Elo 1501
0
-
6
Waterhouse
Elo 1671
FT
HT 0-3
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-170
H2H (6)
0H
0D
6A
Elo rating comparison
Chapelton1501
Waterhouse1671
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Chapelton
0Draws
6Waterhouse
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
CORRECT
Home
26%
@ 3.41
Draw
23%
@ 3.09
Away
51%
@ 2.02
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
@ 1.88
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.25
No
25%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
21%
@ 4.20
Draw
39%
@ 1.99
Away
40%
@ 2.69
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.44
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
@ 1.37
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 2.14
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.