How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Legia Warszawa, at 49.9%. The other outcomes represent 50.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.9% · Draw: 19.8% · Away win: 30.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Legia Warszawa 1971; Korona Kielce 1876. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 5–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Clubs · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 10:00
Legia Warszawa
Elo 1971
5
-
1
Korona Kielce
Elo 1876
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+95
H2H (5)
0H
4D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Legia Warszawa1971
Korona Kielce1876
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Legia Warszawa
4Draws
1Korona Kielce
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
CORRECT
Home
50%
Draw
20%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
36%
Draw
40%
Away
24%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.