How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is FC Orenburg, at 68.4%. The other outcomes represent 31.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 68.4% · Draw: 19.5% · Away win: 12.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: FC Orenburg 1786; Tekstilshchik 1620. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Clubs · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:30
FC Orenburg
Elo 1786
3
-
2
Tekstilshchik
Elo 1620
FT
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+166
Elo rating comparison
FC Orenburg1786
Tekstilshchik1620
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—FC Orenburg
—Draws
—Tekstilshchik
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
68% conf.
CORRECT
Home
68%
Draw
19%
Away
12%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
Home
46%
Draw
41%
Away
12%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.