How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Apollon Limassol, at 42.0%. The other outcomes represent 58.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38.8% · Draw: 19.2% · Away win: 42%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: AEK Larnaca 2007; Apollon Limassol 1987. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies Clubs · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 16:00
AEK Larnaca
Elo 2007
3
-
0
Apollon Limassol
Elo 1987
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+20
H2H (10)
2H
6D
2A
Elo rating comparison
AEK Larnaca2007
Apollon Limassol1987
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2AEK Larnaca
6Draws
2Apollon Limassol
10 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
@ 2.09
Draw
19%
@ 3.47
Away
42%
@ 2.99
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.33
No
40%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
@ 1.65
No
39%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
27%
@ 2.70
Draw
40%
@ 2.23
Away
33%
@ 3.56
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
@ 1.31
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
@ 1.20
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
@ 1.70
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.