How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Acatlan, at 70.9%. The other outcomes represent 29.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 70.9% · Draw: 19% · Away win: 10.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Acatlan 1443; Ciervos 1196. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 5–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga Premier Serie A · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 22:00
Acatlan
Elo 1443
5
-
3
Ciervos
Elo 1196
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+248
Elo rating comparison
Acatlan1443
Ciervos1196
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Acatlan
—Draws
—Ciervos
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
71% conf.
CORRECT
Home
71%
Draw
19%
Away
10%
Both Teams to Score
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Half-Time Result
56% conf.
CORRECT
Home
56%
Draw
32%
Away
11%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.