How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Melbourne Victory, at 38.2%. The other outcomes represent 61.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38.2% · Draw: 30.6% · Away win: 31.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Melbourne Victory 1791; Melbourne City 1743. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
A-League · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 08:40
Melbourne Victory
Elo 1791
1
-
1
Melbourne City
Elo 1743
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+47
Elo rating comparison
Melbourne Victory1791
Melbourne City1743
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Melbourne Victory
—Draws
—Melbourne City
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
@ 2.30
Draw
31%
@ 3.58
Away
31%
@ 2.84
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.60
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.41
No
35%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.59
No
31%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
@ 2.84
Draw
34%
@ 2.24
Away
36%
@ 3.32
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.31
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.21
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.