How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Siarka Tarnobrzeg, at 44.4%. The other outcomes represent 55.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.5% · Draw: 22.1% · Away win: 44.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Moravia Morawica 1422; Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1530. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
III Liga - Group 4 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 12:00
Moravia Morawica
Elo 1422
2
-
3
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Elo 1530
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
-108
Elo rating comparison
Moravia Morawica1422
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1530
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Moravia Morawica
—Draws
—Siarka Tarnobrzeg
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
34%
Draw
22%
Away
44%
Both Teams to Score
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
CORRECT
Home
28%
Draw
36%
Away
36%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.