How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Polonia Środa, at 54.3%. The other outcomes represent 45.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 23.6% · Draw: 22.1% · Away win: 54.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Kalisz 1475; Polonia Środa 1703. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
III Liga - Group 2 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 12:00
Kalisz
Elo 1475
0
-
0
Polonia Środa
Elo 1703
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-228
Elo rating comparison
Kalisz1475
Polonia Środa1703
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Kalisz
—Draws
—Polonia Środa
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
WRONG
Home
24%
Draw
22%
Away
54%
Both Teams to Score
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
No
34%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
24%
Draw
35%
Away
41%
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.