How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is MSV Duisburg, at 49.9%. The other outcomes represent 50.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 29.2% · Draw: 20.9% · Away win: 49.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: FC Ingolstadt 04 1810; MSV Duisburg 1963. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
3. Liga · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 12:00
FC Ingolstadt 04
Elo 1810
2
-
1
MSV Duisburg
Elo 1963
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-153
Elo rating comparison
FC Ingolstadt 041810
MSV Duisburg1963
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—FC Ingolstadt 04
—Draws
—MSV Duisburg
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
Draw
21%
Away
50%
Both Teams to Score
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
77%
No
23%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
Draw
38%
Away
40%
HT Both Teams Score
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.